One of the biggest differences in soccer compared to other sports is that there will be a tie game. And when two teams play to a draw, sometimes it's hard to tell the difference no matter how long it's extended. The playing field is large and the players are physically burdened. There are only a limited number of substitutions that can be made, and it is impossible to extend the game indefinitely.
Prior to the 1970s, a tie between two teams was decided by a replay or even a draw. It was not until the 1970s that PK battles were introduced to a tournament in England that UEFA and FIFA slowly began to use them.
In the past, it has been statistically proven that the first side in a PK battle wins 60% of the time. Studying the reasons carefully, some experts mentioned that the side that kicks later has to bear a lot of pressure, the first kicking opponent scores a goal, and then the kicking team has to bear the pressure of having to score a goal. Even if the opponents don't score, they are still affected by the psychological factor of scoring a goal to take the lead.
Of course, this statement can only be described as a theory. After all, it is necessary for the side that kicks first to get in, otherwise there may be pressure later. In a recent article by Jordet, a professor and writer at the Norwegian School of Sport Science, he started counting European men's soccer from Europe 2012, including 115 PK battles in the World, Europe, Europa League, Champions League, Europa League, and European clubs. As a result, the first match was won less than 50% of the time, at 48.83%. The results of the European PK battles.
Here we take a screenshot of a few post-2012 PK War results. First up is Europe. starting with the top 8 in Europe in 2012, there were 12 PK battles. Of those, the first team only lost to the three teams in the red box. The first team won 9 wins, a 75% win rate. In Europe, the first team in a PK battle has a pretty high win rate. Let's take a look at the last three games of the tournament or enter the PK battle.
How is the world doing?After 2012, there were three games in the world.The result of the 13 games was that the team that played first in 9 of the red boxes lost. In contrast, the world is the opposite of Europe, where the teams that play first have a very low win rate.
Probably the most impressive was World 2022, where Argentina beat Holland and France twice in PK battles, with Lionel Messi eventually winning the world title. Argentina kicked from behind in both PK battles, and World 2018 was even more extreme. All the teams that kicked first four times lost. The situation in the world is that the team that plays first in the PK battle wins only 31% of the time.
Then came the Champions League. Above are the numbers after the group stage of the round of 32. Since 2016-2023, PK battles have not appeared in the knockout stage of the Champions League's internal competition for seven consecutive seasons. It's probably fair to say that with the away goal advantage, the score is the same in the two matches before and after, and the likelihood of winning or losing a team in different scenarios is relatively low.
After 2012, there are only 6 PK battles in the Champions League knockout rounds. The first and second matches each have 3 wins and a 50% win rate. the PK battles are more of a pre-Champions League qualifying match.
There were 21 PK battles in the 2012 UEFA Champions League qualifying rounds, the most of which occurred in the past 2023-24 season, with three of the five PK battles lost by the team that played first. Statistically, the side that played first in the PK battle won 11 of the 21 matches and swallowed 10 defeats, with a winning percentage of just over 50%, at 52%.
Let's take a look at the OHL. 17 PK battles have occurred in the tournament portion since 2012. Nine teams have played first and then lost, more than half, and the win rate for playing first is 47%.
The Europa League doesn't organize the qualifying portion of the tournament, and there's enough data to go around. In addition, there are too many Europa League qualifying PK battles, with 16 matches in the 2020-21 season alone. It's too time-consuming to count and unnecessary.
There were 69 PK battles in the four events mentioned above, and the side that played first won 35 of them, for a 50.7% win rate, which is actually close to half a game full, and not at all as high as the 60% win rate.
The reason why Jordt's advantage of kicking the team first is becoming less and less obvious is because he mentions the importance of preparing for PK battles. He gave the example of the PK battle in the last world final between Argentina and France. Deschamps, the head coach of France, believes that PK battles cannot be simulated. Deschamps believes that the mental state of training is completely different from a real PK battle, as evidenced by his past experience as a player.
But not Argentina's head coach Scaloni. In the world final, it took them only 15 seconds to determine the penalty candidates and subsequent order for the PK battle. In contrast to Deschamps, they were still thinking about who should go up to play. Argentina was ready. Therefore, Argentina won. Even the side that plays the ball later wins the PK battle.
