In a post I wrote earlier this season, I mentioned that Luton needed to rely on their home form for their relegation hopes, and that's exactly what they've been doing up until this week's game against Manchester United.
Luton have lost only two of their last 10 games and are now out of the relegation zone, but a cold home defeat against a weak Saffied United could put their efforts to waste. If they beat Saffied, they will be 13 points clear of their rivals and 10 points ahead of second-tier Bonny, increasing their chances of relegation.
Luton's success is largely due to their direct style of play. They utilize the speed of their touchline players, their ability to press forward quickly, and their ability to play the ball directly from the back to the front, resulting in an average possession rate of only 39.4%, which is the 2nd lowest in the league this season. At the same time, the number of goals scored with their feet is also the 2nd lowest, but the number of goals scored with headers is on the contrary the 2nd highest, which proves how much they like to threaten the opponents by lifting the ball directly into the penalty area.
This is quite interesting, as their opponents Manchester United have conceded the 4th most dead balls this season, with an Expected Dead Ball Conceded (EDC) of 9.55, which is the 3rd highest in the league. I'm sure Luton will be aware of this weakness, so I expect to see a lot of high balls from the touchline and the middle of the pitch into the United box on Sunday.
On the other hand, Manchester United are in their best form this season when they visit Luton. They are unbeaten in their last 6 matches and have won 4 in a row. Last time they got an important win against Aston Villa and narrowed the gap to the top 4 to only 6 points, which is quite a good gap considering the long period of fluctuating performances this season.
As I mentioned before, United's resurgence depends largely on its attacking players coming into form, and no one is in hotter form than Helen, who has scored 5 goals in her last 5 matches to lead her team to the top 4.
Although they keep scoring goals, they also keep conceding them, and have only managed to keep a clean sheet in 1 league game since a 0-0 draw with Liverpool in December 2023. Opponents can often expect to find chances to score on them, however, they often overcome these obstacles with tenacity and eventually win the game.
