September 22, 2024, 21:00 hours.
Serie A
Monza will take on Bologna.
Monza has 3 draws and 1 loss without a win in the new season, ranking 15th in Serie A. At home, they have 1 draw and 1 loss, scoring 1 goal and conceding 2 goals. At home, they have 1 draw and 1 loss, scoring 1 goal and conceding 2, playing a conservative style. Monza's last two matches were both draws, and they also drew with Fiorentina and Inter Milan who can play European matches. They drew with Fiorentina and Inter Milan who can play European matches. Last time, they drew at home against Inter Milan and were quite tough.
Bologna also have 3 draws and 1 loss in the new season, and are 17th on goal difference, worse than Monza. They have problems in the back line and are also distracted by the Champions League. They were drawn 0-0 at home by Shakhtar Donetsk in the Champions League in midweek, and have been winless for 9 consecutive matches, so their form is not good.
The stats are in favor of Bologna in this match, but they are not physically superior, and they didn't win the last 3 times they touched Monza and got shutout. So I think Monza can go undefeated and take the points with their physical strength.
Let's take a look at the basics of the two teams. Monza has 1 win, 5 draws and 4 losses in the last 10 games, with 1 win, 3 draws and 2 losses at home, scoring 9 goals and conceding 13 goals. Bologna has 1 win, 6 draws and 3 losses in the last 10 games, 1 win, 2 draws and 3 losses on the road, scoring 9 goals and conceding 17 goals.
The weight of this match is 3836, and the mathematical model predicts 1.06 expected goals for the home team and 1.74 for the away team. The variance is in the direction of the away team, and the smallest divergence in terms of extreme variance is also in the direction of the away team.
