The national soccer team will face Qatar at 23:00 tonight in the final round of the Asian Cup group stage. Former national team player Xu Liang said that the probability of the national soccer team failing to make it out of the tournament is 70%.
Xu Liang said, "I can't say it any more than there's a 70% chance we'll make it out of the tournament." If we get 1 point, normally the goal difference of the third place in the group is negative. We are likely to advance regardless of whether we get out of the tournament directly after another draw, or by comparing goal difference with the third place in the group. So while three points can make it more likely that we will get out of the tournament, it's not absolute."
Xu Liang further explained, "Why do you say 70% win rate is far from enough? Because we want to get points against Qatar, even if the opponent sends in substitutes, it's not easy for us to cope with it, let's just say that it's not easy to fend off a 0-0 loss." On top of that, there's a 30% chance that we'll face Qatar, who may field substitutes. If we manage to pick up a point, we will accumulate three points and thus qualify as third in the group."
