FIFA initially planned to hold the group draw for the 2026 World Cup qualifiers at the end of July this year, according to the organizing committee for the 2026 World Cup in the United States, Canada and Mexico. China is likely to participate in the second phase of the tournament in Asia.
Split by 7.20 Ranking 7.20 Ranking Split
In previous World Cup qualifiers, the AFC has run separate Asian qualifiers in advance under the supervision of FIFA, as the Asian competition started a year earlier than the other continents. For example, in Russia World Cup qualifying, Asia held the group draws for the first and second phases in April 2015, and FIFA held the group draws for the other continental qualifiers in December 2015; in 2022 World Cup qualifying, the AFC also held the group draws for the first phase in April 2019, and then in July of the same year, held the second phase of the group draw, while FIFA held the group draws for the other continents at the end of the year.
According to the World Cup Asian Qualifying Plan submitted by the AFC, the 2026 World Cup Asian Qualifying Tournament and the 2027 Asian Cup Qualifying Tournament will remain "integrated", i.e., the first and second phases of the World Qualifying Tournament will also be the first and second phases of the 2027 Asian Cup Qualifying Tournament.
In the first phase of the World and Asian Cup qualifiers, the 22 teams at the bottom of the 47 member associations under the AFC, according to the latest FIFA rankings, will first play home and away knockout matches. [The Russian team is not being considered for the Asian qualifiers for the time being, as it is not yet clearer whether the Russian Football Federation will eventually participate in the Asian qualifiers].
National football team second gear in the group
The 11 teams that win the first stage will qualify for the 36-team second stage. Of those teams, two will have the honor of becoming Tier 3 teams and the other nine will become Tier 4 teams. The Stage 2 Top 36 will be divided into nine groups of four teams each, playing a home and away double round robin. The top two teams with the highest number of points in each group will qualify for the Stage 3 Top 18 (equivalent to the top 12 in both the 2018 and 2022 World Cups).
Similarly, according to the FIFA 2022 national team rankings for countries and regions around the world released in December, China is currently ranked 11th in Asia with 1,305.06 technical points. Oman, which participated in the Gulf Cup in January and finished second, currently has 1,329.72 technical points. China is 24.66 technical points away from Oman, the ninth team in Asia, and can only compete in second place. In the 2018 and 2022 World Cup qualifiers, China entered the second stage of the draw as the first seeded team and eventually qualified for the top 12. In the 2014 and 2010 World Cup qualifiers, China participated in the second stage of the draw as the second-tier team, both missing out on the top 10 in the third stage.
The brackets for the second stage of the 36-team tournament are as follows:
Tier 1: Japan (20), Iran (24), Korea (25), Australia (27), Saudi Arabia (49), (60) Qatar, Iraq (68), UAE (70), Oman (75);
Tier 2: Uzbekistan (77), China (80), Jordan (84), Bahrain (85), Syria (90), Palestine (93), Kyrgyzstan (94), Vietnam (96), Lebanon (100);
Tier 3: India (106), Tajikistan (108), Thailand (111), North Korea (112), Philippines (134), Turkmenistan (135), Malaysia (145), winners of Stage 1 (two teams);
Level 4: Stage 1 winners (nine teams).
Of course, due to the two FIFA-designated windows for national team matches in March and June this year, national teams from various countries and regions will be scheduled for international a-level matches, with a minimum of four matches. Therefore, by July 20, when FIFA releases the latest world rankings of national teams from various countries and regions, the rankings of individual teams may change, as will their classifications. For example, Malaysia is currently ranked 25th in Asia, 142nd in FIFA rankings, with 1071.99 technical points; Hong Kong, China is currently ranked 26th in Asia, 146th in FIFA rankings, with 1062.39 technical points. If Hong Kong, China can win enough points in the next two FIFA national team competition windows, and the Malaysian team has been losing, then Hong Kong, China will have the opportunity to overtake the Malaysian team and directly participate in the second stage of the 36, while the Malaysian team will have to participate in the knockout rounds.
November 16, 2023, Third Tier teams vs. China
November 21, 2023, China vs. first-tier teams
March 21, 2024, Tier 4 teams vs. China
March 26, 2024, China vs. fourth-ranked teams
June 6, 2024, China vs. Division III teams
June 11, 2024, Tier 1 teams vs. China
In light of the above, once the Chinese men's soccer team meets one of the six Qatar World Cup teams and meets an opponent such as Tajikistan, North Korea or Thailand in the third tier, the entire 36-team qualification picture will be quite grim. Furthermore, looking at the schedule, the last home game at the end of the year is Nov. 21, and China may not be sure of winning a home game even against Iraq, Oman or the United Arab Emirates, let alone one of the six World Cup teams. After the tournament, the Chinese men's national team will refocus on preparing for the Asian Cup in Qatar. Of course, if you can win at home against such a strong opponent, it would certainly be a "booster" for Chinese soccer, and it would certainly be a great morale booster for Chinese soccer.
The Top 18 is separate from the Asian Qualifiers
If China can finish second in their group and qualify in the second stage of the 36, China has secured an early ticket to the 2027 Asian Cup in Saudi Arabia and will play in the third stage of the World Qualifying Round of 18. The final 18 matches will be divided into three groups of six teams each, with the top two teams in each group earning direct tickets to the 2026 World Cup; the third and fourth place finishers in each group will advance to the fourth stage of the play-offs. In the fourth stage, the six teams will be divided into two groups of three teams each, with the first place finishers in each group becoming Asia's seventh and eighth World Cup teams; the second place finishers in each of the two groups will compete in a play-off for a place in the fifth stage of the cross-continental play-offs.
The top 18 teams that missed out on World Cup qualifying will compete in the third stage of the 2027 Asian Cup Qualifiers, which will feature 24 teams, divided into six groups of four teams each, playing home and away matches. The top 6 teams from each group will qualify for the Asian Cup finals. These six top teams, plus the top 18 (including hosts Saudi Arabia), will compete in the 19th Asian Cup Finals to be held in January 2027 in Saudi Arabia.
If China misses the last 18 matches, it will have to play in the third stage of qualifying and struggle for a ticket to the 2027 Asian Cup. The situation remains quite grim for Chinese soccer at the moment.
