China's soccer leader Li Tie (far right) shares the joy of victory with his team after beating Syria in a scene recorded by Xinhua.
With the Chinese men's football team successfully breaking into the World Cup Asian Zone 12, the grouping of the teams will soon be revealed, and the grouping draw will be announced on July 1st. Facing the grouping, what will the national soccer team expect? Li Tie's coaching results are impressive, do we still need to hire top foreign coaches? This issue of Sports Focus will focus on these issues.
What is the ideal grouping?
Zhao Liangchen (hereinafter referred to as Zhao): The 12-team tournament is different from the 40-team tournament, and every match is full of challenges. Therefore, the statement of "meeting anyone is the same" is too optimistic, and the impact of different opponents on the prospects of the national football team can not be ignored.
Lin Benjian (hereinafter referred to as Lin): There is no doubt about the strength of the national football team, in order to get out of the line, it does need some luck, and an ideal grouping may be the biggest luck.
Zhao: The rules for qualifying for the 12-team tournament are: the top two finishers of the two groups advance directly to the World Cup final round; the third place finishers of the two groups play a two-legged playoff, with the winners then playing an intercontinental playoff against another continent. What kind of ideal grouping do you have in mind?
LAM: Compared with the previous 12-team tournament, three teams have been replaced this time, with Oman, Vietnam and Lebanon replacing Uzbekistan, Qatar and Thailand. Qatar is the host country of next year's World Cup and advances directly to the final round, Uzbekistan and Thailand failed to make it to the Top 12 this time around, and Oman, Vietnam and Lebanon are all fresh faces in the final stage of the Asian zone.
ZHAO: It feels like these three newly promoted teams are weak, while Uzbekistan, Qatar and Thailand have all impressed the national soccer team.
LIN: Yes, in terms of classification, the six teams in the top three slots are exactly the same as last time, except that two of them have swapped slots, with Australia moving up to the second slot from the third slot last time and Saudi Arabia dropping down to the third slot. Japan and Iran in the first slot, South Korea in the second slot, and the UAE in the third slot are all identical to the previous edition.
Zhao: Iraq is in the same bracket as the national soccer team, which means that the two teams are divided into two groups for the 12-team tournament and are unlikely to meet in the group stage. Iraq has been a bitter rival of the national soccer team in recent years.
Lin: I think the best situation for the national football team is "two to avoid": one is to avoid the Japanese team, and the other is to avoid the encirclement of West Asian teams. The strength of the Japanese team in Asia alone, the technical awareness of the players, team tactics and other aspects of cooperation have been European and American, higher than the Asian opponents several grades.
ZHAO: It's true that the national soccer team is now less likely to win against Japan.
Lin: the first two grades of teams, Iran, Australia and South Korea, the national football team can barely fight with them, and who with the group is not much difference. The last four teams, in addition to the national football team, West Asian teams accounted for six, the national football team at least to touch two. If you can choose, I think with Iran, Australia, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Vietnam team with the group is a more ideal result. Although the overall strength of Saudi Arabia is stronger than that of the UAE in the same bracket, the national soccer team has never been afraid of the Saudi team, and won the 2015 Asian Cup. And the UAE team in recent years has made great progress, has two consecutive Asian Cup into the quarterfinals.
ZHAO: Coincidentally, one of the key points in the 2001 World Qualifying Tournament grouping game was to change the reference to historical results from looking at the last two World Cups to the last three, which led to the UAE replacing Iran as the first-ranked team and ending up in the same group as China in the second-ranked team.
LIN: In the last round of this 40-team tournament, the national soccer team won against Syria, but the opponent had a number of main players absent. Syrian players have skills and bodies, strong confrontation ability, a lot better than the same level of Oman.
Zhao: And when the final round of the 40 strong match, the Syrian team has already locked the group first, so the war intention is not enough. As for the sixth gear of the Vietnamese team, in recent years, significant progress, but the national football team to win a greater grasp; Lebanon's strength may not be as good as the Vietnamese team, but less than the Lebanese team, the West Asian encirclement may be less a chess piece. The national soccer team has suffered losses in this area before.
Age is the biggest shortcoming
ZHAO: Let's talk about the past 40 matches, what do you think is the biggest improvement that this national football team has shown now? What is the biggest shortcoming?
Lin: The biggest improvement is the physical condition of the players. four games after the restart of the 40-team tournament, the players quickly entered the game; in the second half, the physical advantage is very obvious. This is due to the fact that the domestic league is in the middle of the tournament period and the players are in the match period, and on the other hand, it is also due to the effective training of the players' physical fitness by the coaching staff of the national football team.
Zhao: Li Tie, the manager of the team, claimed in his playing days that he "can't die" and attached great importance to physical training, as well as scientific methods.
LIN: As for the biggest shortcoming, I think it is the age of the players.In the 2019 Asian Cup, the average age of the national football team was 28.74 years old, which was the oldest among all the 24 teams that participated. In this 40-team tournament, the average age of the national football team is even older than in the Asian Cup, close to 30 years old. The average age of the national football team's starting lineup against Syria was nearly 31 years old, indicating that there really hasn't been much new talent emerging in recent years, and it is expected to rely on this group of veterans by the Round of 12.
The "ceiling" for local skippers
ZHAO: Now some people are calling for the Top 12 to still be replaced by high-level foreign coaches, what do you think?
LIN: People who hold this view, I think the main thing is to see the former experience of the last tournament. At that time, the soil marshal Gao Hongbo was appointed at risk, but also thanks to the assistance of other teams in Asia, the national football team in the final two 40 games after the final, very fortunate to take the last train of the 12 strong, Gao Hongbo also got the praise of the outside world. But after the start of the 12 strong match, the national football team only got 1 point in the first four games, Gao Hongbo's deployment, field command and so on are highly questionable, the outside world to ask him to leave the class of the sound is very big. Gao Hongbo finally chose to resign. World famous coach Lippi took over, the national football team in the remaining six 12 games 3 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss, 11 points, and the play-offs only 1 point away. The two coaches got a huge difference in points also let public opinion that if the 12 strong match at the beginning let Lippi coaching, the national football team may have played into the World Cup.
Zhao: But this time after Li Tie took over, the national football team in the 40 strong performance instead and Lippi period has improved significantly. Maybe it helps to "get rid of the charm" off some "only foreign handsome line" point of view? The level of the foreign marshal again high, the water and soil is not convinced is also not work.
LIN: Combining the process, wins and losses, and lessons learned from the national soccer team's previous World Cup appearances, I thought that a head coach with successful experience was still very much needed for a major tournament such as the Top 12. The only time the national soccer team entered the World Cup, the head coach was Milu, before coaching the national soccer team, he took different teams to the World Cup for four consecutive times from 1986 to 1998, and all of them got out of the group stage. Such a wealth of experience is what the national soccer team desperately lacks.
ZHAO: But what can't be ignored is that Zhang Jilong drew the upper hand for the national soccer team in that World Cup.
Lin: Indeed, but the role of Milu, is to let the national football team know in the impact of the World Cup process should do what strategic preparation and homework, large to in a variety of complex and even unexpected situation how to deal with, small to in a specific game in a variety of tactical selection and so on. This level of coach's judgment of the situation, the team's control and the ability to resist pressure, etc., is the current local coaches do not have.
ZHAO: I admit that Milu has done a good job in these aspects, but what is also not to be ignored is whether it was Milu's status and seniority that allowed him to gain absolute authority in the national football team and to be able to set up his own arrangements securely at that time? If a local coach obtains the same prestige and authority, is he necessarily inferior to a foreign coach? Lippi is good enough and qualified enough to be better than Milu, but he showed signs of not being able to control the team in the first half of this 40-team tournament.
Lin: Lippi took 7 points in four games, Li Tie took 12 points in four games, and it looks like Li Tie's coaching results are better. In fact, Lippi did have some bad luck at that time, away from the Philippines, the national football team nearly 30 feet of shots on goal, there are a few hit the post, if that took, I believe that even if the latter one lost to the Syrian team, Lippi will not resign.
ZHAO: The average standard of a good foreign manager is definitely higher than that of a local manager, there is no doubt about it, otherwise why did the strongest teams in the Chinese Super League hire mostly foreign managers over the years? But the problem is that there are only two months to go before the start of the 12-team tournament, and there is very little time left to pick the size of the team and to allow the foreign coach to adapt.
LIN: If you say who is the most suitable domestic coach for the national soccer team at this stage, then it must be Li Tie. He has the experience of staying in the foreign countries, attacking and fighting in the World Cup as a starter under Milu, and following the world champion Lippi in Guangzhou Evergrande to fight in the north and the south, all these make Li Tie become the only local coach at present.
Zhao: Li Tie took over after the national football performance improvement is a combination of many factors, there is a chance. But if specific to this 12 strong, I still think, in the preparation of such a tight situation, Li Tie is the best choice. With the current strength of the national football team, to get out of the line, there must be a sword to go sideways. In the cohesion of the team's mental strength, the new foreign coach in a short period of time is difficult to do better than Li Tie.
Lin: In the case of not invited big-name foreign managers, Li Tie is indeed the most suitable soil manager. Just a scene of the past soil manager leading the team to hit the World Cup, still let the fans have no bottom in their hearts.
Zhao: Special circumstances, can only be special response. To make a name for himself as a local manager has always been the goal of Li Tie's career planning, and it is also where his heart lies. four consecutive victories in the final stage of the 40-team tournament, I would like to see it as a ticket to make a name for himself as the leader of the team. In the case of sufficient logistical support, public opinion is more supportive, the external environment is also more favorable, to test the local head coach's "ceiling" in the end where.
