Looking back at an old article I wrote earlier in the season, it was mentioned that Luton needed to rely on home advantage in order to stay up, and that was their continued strategy up until they faced Manchester United this week.
Luton have only lost 2 of their last 10 games, easing the pressure of relegation in the league, but last week's surprise defeat at home to an out-of-form Saffron United may have undone their efforts. A win over Saffied would have boosted Luton's relegation hopes by 13 points over their rivals and 10 points ahead of bottom-placed Bonny.
Luton's success is largely due to their direct style of play. They specialize in using the speed of their wing players to lift the ball from the back to the front through quick advances and passes, and as a result have averaged just 39.4% possession this season, the second lowest in the league. They also have the second fewest goals scored, but the second highest number of header goals, showing how much they like to threaten the opposition with direct overhead kicks.
This is quite interesting as this week's opponents Manchester United have conceded the fourth most goals from dead balls this season, with an Expected Goals Against of 9.55, the third most in the league. I believe that Luton will capitalize on this weakness of United, so I predict that Sunday's game will see Luton launching a number of overhead kicks from the sides and middle of the pitch in an attempt to break down United's defense.
Meanwhile, Manchester United visit Luton in their best form of the season. They are unbeaten in their last six games and have won four in a row. Their win against Aston Villa last week was crucial, closing the gap to the top four teams to six points, which is quite good considering the inconsistent performances this season.
As I've said before, United's resurgence is heavily reliant on the improved form of their attacking players, and no one is in hotter form at the moment than Heeren, who has scored five goals in his last five games to lead his side's push for the top four.
Despite their goal scoring streak, they concede just as often. Since a 0-0 draw with Liverpool in December 2023, United have only kept a clean sheet in one league match, and opponents can often expect to find scoring chances on them, although they usually overcome these difficulties with resilience and eventually come out on top.
