As the dust settles on the World Cup Top 8 list, the FiveThirtyEight website's Super Calculator has been activated once again to accurately calculate the probability of each team winning this year's tournament. The results show that Brazil has the highest probability of winning the tournament, at a staggering 33%.
The data shows that Brazil's SPI (Strength Index) is 93.5, the highest among all 32 participating teams. Their opponent in the Round of 8, Croatia, has an SPI of only 79, and is the only team to advance through the second place in the group stage, with a significant gap in strength with Brazil. According to this projection, Brazil's probability of winning the Round of 8 is as high as 77%.
The other marquee match is between Portugal and Morocco. Portugal is currently ranked second with an SPI of 87.9, while Morocco's SPI is only 74.4, the lowest among the top 8 teams. According to this analysis, Portugal has a 68% success rate in advancing to the Round of 8.
In the two remaining Round of 8 matches, Holland vs. Argentina and England vs. France, the probability of winning is relatively close and not lopsided. Specifically, England's win rate against France is 52% and France's is 48%, making the two almost indistinguishable from each other.
Based on the analysis of the path of advancement, whether Brazil meets Holland or Argentina in the quarterfinals, the winning percentage remains around 51%. Current projections also put Brazil's chances of winning the title at 33%. As for the other four strong teams - Portugal, England, Argentina and France - the winning percentage is between 12% and 14%, with little difference between them.
