Under the transformation of the silver fox Lippi, the national football team got 4 points in 3 matches, the performance is not disgraceful. But facing a 7-point gap with Uzbekistan, can the national soccer team make a comeback in the latter three rounds? By the world's largest pre-match decision-making service platform-
Measured, the national football team to fight for the third remaining 2% of the possibility. Instead of expecting the miracle of "reaching the third place in Group A, then winning the third place in Group B, and then winning against New Zealand", Lippi's national football team may need to solve three stubborn problems in the future: shooting, passing and defense.
Ripley's Line: It's Not Too Late to Heal
2% of the possibility of the national football team to fight for the third place remains, no hope of qualifying for the World Qualifying Tournament
As of the 7th round of the 12-team tournament, the national football team has fallen behind the third place in the same group, Uzbekistan, by 7 points, theoretically, there are two main scenarios to overtake: the national football team in the last three rounds of the full win, Uzbekistan zero wins; the national football team in the last three rounds of the full win, Uzbekistan full loss of 7 points. As the second scenario is too extreme, it can be basically ruled out.
Referring to the historical handicap, the chances of winning the next three rounds for the national soccer team are about 30%, 40% and 35% in order, i.e., the probability of three consecutive victories P1=30%*40%*35%=4.2%. Meanwhile, the probability of Uzbekistan playing Iran-South Korea without a win P2 = (1-20%)*(1-24%) = 60.8%. However, if Uzbekistan draws Korea-Iran and ends up with the same number of points as the national soccer team, it will be difficult for the national soccer team to make up for the big hole of 6 goal difference disadvantage. Therefore, P2 should also remove 8% to 10% of the two draw scenarios. To summarize, the probability P (=P1*P2) of the national football team's third-place finish should be in the range of 2.13-2.22%. As for "another win over the third place in Group B, another win over New Zealand", to reach the achievement of entering the 2018 World Cup, is not suspense but residual thought.
Three persistent problems test famous doctor Lippi
Top 12 Powers penalty box **goal performances
So, is this 2% possibility of fighting for three reliable? From Gao Hongbo to Lippi, the tactical ability of the national football team is stronger, but the level of shooting, passing and defense is difficult to change in the short term. Big data shows that the front line of the national football team is too obvious: Gao Lin has been at least 25 consecutive national team games without goals, lower than Zhang Linpeng, Meifang and other Evergrande defender teammates; Yang Xu Yu Dabao can face the 40 strong weak team to brush the goals, when the strong will depend on luck; Wu Lei's performance in the club and the national team is like a dichotomy....... From the 12 strong match shooting data, the national football team has a lot to do, but it's not the same. Strong match shooting data, the national football average shot 9 times, average shot 1.7 times, shot rate of 19%, are ranked A group bottom. Interestingly, the national football team has 37 times in the penalty area ** goal, however, the penalty area ** positive only 7 times, the shot rate of 18.9%, than Syria, Thailand have a big gap.
In addition to the lack of penalty area killers, the second major fault of the national football team is that it can not pass the ball well. Data show that the national football average pass 345 times, slightly lower than the same group of 373.5 times of the average value, but in the quality of the pass, the overall success rate of only 68.1%, the success rate of short passes for 71.9%, while in the Asian powerhouse, in addition to the high-flying Iran, Japan, South Korea, Australia, Saudi Arabia's success rate of short passes are in the 80% -85%. If the future of the national football passing success rate can be raised to 75% or so, I believe that more or less can be solved for the front line "do cake" problem.
Difficulty in passing and shooting and no good offense naturally increased the pressure on the defense of the national football team. In the defensive end, the national football team average 18.9 times, interceptions 17.3 times, saves 3.0 times, fouls 15.9 times, are the second most in group A. In the steal data, the national football team has 16 times/game at the bottom of the group, also shows that the defense pressure is too much. In the steal data, the national football team is at the bottom of the group with 16 times/game, which also shows that the national football team's defense pressure is too great, so they dare not take the risk to steal the siege.
In any case, it's obvious where the national football team is weak, which helps that a footballing doctor like Lippi can customize a personalized medical plan for it.
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